shadowprice

Know what a CRR path is worth before you bid on it.

Shadowprice prices every path in the ERCOT CRR auctions against two years of settlement history — what it actually paid, what it cleared at, and whether the constraints behind it still exist. Bid limits with a margin built in, sized to real liquidity, exported in ERCOT's upload format.

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Auction bid sheets

Before every monthly and long-term auction: every path scored on its delivery-month history, a bid ceiling with a 50% margin rule, lottery sizing capped by real traded volume, and a one-click CSV in the ERCOT upload format.

Constraint alerts

A third of ERCOT's actively-binding constraints changed rating in the last 90 days. When a constraint behind your position is re-rated, retired, or scheduled for a relief project, you hear about it before the next auction prices it in.

Exit & book valuation

Winding down a book, or valuing one for a transaction? We produce defended, settlement-reconciled valuations — every number traceable to an immutable run and public data. Priced per engagement.

Why trust the numbers

Settlement-validated. Our engine reproduces a cooperating account holder's actual ERCOT settlement statements within 2% on 91% of independently tested positions.

Self-scored in public. Every sheet we publish is scored against what the auction and the settlement actually did — hits and misses, never edited. Marks are struck append-only; corrections are new runs.

Neutral by charter. We hold no CRR positions and sell no exit intelligence. Your book data goes to you and nobody else.

© 2026 ShadowpriceTermsPrivacyAll analytics derive from public ERCOT data. Not investment advice.